By Sean Hanley, University College London.

This contribution is drawn from an article written by Sean Hanley on his webiste. Be sure to subscribe to it if you want to be informed of his future contributions and to support his work.

Tony Barber’s weekly FT (Financial Times) column rounds up and examines Eastern Europe’s latest round of civic protest in Slovakia, Romania, Georgia, Serbia. It’s a mixed bag of regimes and issues. Two in the EU, two aspiring to join by stalled by illiberal governments, one with (Georgia) with the looming presence of Russian influence right next door and thousands of kilometres distant from the European heartlands.

The key takeaway, Barber says, is that there are countervailing liberal forces resisting various Kremlin-aligned illiberal governments – and doing so persistently – at least the nations’ capitals and cities. What’s more liberal civic nationalism is alive and well. But Barber is astute in noting, as academic researchers have, that this similar looking, urban middle class civic mobilisation is subtly different in countries which are, both politically and geographically in, different places.

Are watershed elections and the EU enough?

In Serbia, protests erupt over corruption and shrinking civic freedoms. These demonstrations are large but leaderless, demanding systemic reform rather than outright regime change. Protesters distrust opposition parties and electoral politics, avoiding engagement in formal structures. Unlike in other countries, they do not carry EU flags, reflecting a scepticism toward European institutions of a stalled candidate state. The government remains stable, bolstered by the EU’s preference for regional stability over democracy. The lesson is that politics so much more than just winning some future watershed election and “turning the tide of populism’ (tides always comes back in). Targeting the post-communist deep state, the oligarchical power structures is the wickeder problem.

In Slovakia, resistance has focused on Prime Minister Robert Fico’s autocratic drive against independent institutions following 2023 comeback: the winding up and re-forming of public TV, and pressure on NGOs. Protests see elections as a crucial battleground for change, unlike in Serbia, although as ever the precise vehicle capable of defeating Fico remains uncertain. Demonstrators strongly support the EU, aligning themselves with Europe’s perceived democratic norms. But public opinion remains split, with some backing NATO and European integration, while others favour neutrality or a more Russia-friendly stance of the kind backed by Fico.

Hungary’s protests, though smaller than those in Serbia, challenge Viktor Orbán’s deeply entrenched system of electoral autocracy and opposition suppression. Midway between Serbia and Slovak patterns, the opposition still engages in elections with the new TISZA party the strongest challenge to Orbán in years, but under an uneven playing field that fuels scepticism about whether real change is now possible through the ballot box. With Orbán’s control over the judiciary, security forces, and media, Hungary is unlikely to see a Poland-style opposition victory in 2025, as the system is designed to keep him in power. The EU is critical of Orbán, yet Hungarian protesters do not display the strong EU alignment seen in Slovakia, perhaps chastened by the years of failed EU leverage

Georgia faces unrest over rigged elections, creeping authoritarianism, and powerful Russian influence. Protests target the ruling Georgian Dream party, and while elections were rigged, opposition forces still see them as worth contesting. As in Slovakia backsliding is relatively new and illiberalism less entrenched. Protesters take the strong pro-EU stance, common would-be members state far from membership although the EU and (less surprisingly) the US have been largely inactive in offering support. With weak international backing, Georgia remains highly vulnerable to Russian interference, making its democratic future perhaps the most precarious.

Historical analogies fail to inform

Less convincing – or thought through – are FT’s tired historical analogies:

people [writes Tony Barber] are massing on the streets in the name of liberal ideals and national self-determination — seen as hijacked by bullying, self-serving autocrats — in a manner that recalls 1848 and also 1989, the year of the pro-democracy revolutions against communism.

History matters, but the existence of strong civic minded publics with a liberal national vision isn’t reason to reach for the history books.

We’ve been here before – and to very mixed effect.

1989 was itself compared to the 1848 “Springtime of Nations”, but its liberal revolutions – at least for a long interlude – succeeded while those of 1848 were snuffed out. The 2011 Arab Spring was compared to both 1989 and 1848 but largely lacked the liberalism and depended less on geopolitics than domestic authoritarian retrenchment.

Unlike 1848, today’s protests are unlikely to be directly crushed by external military intervention, and unlike 1989, they lack clear leadership and effective Western backing and are pushing back against democratic backsliding, not pushing for democracy in a situation of authoritarian collapse. Indeed, today’s autocrats are in many ways products of 1989, well entrenched and well capable of faking and manipulating democratic forms for deeply autocratic purposes, not the exhausted dynasts or communists of the past.

Historical parallels with 1848 and 1989 fall short. We are in new political territory. The shifting nature of democratic pushback—where mass protests, electoral struggles, and international disengagement intersect—suggest a different kind of contest, which – even if democratic defence leads to full blown democratic renewal – does not fit neatly into past revolutionary cycles.

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Sean Hanley is a full-time professor at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies at University College of London. His research focuses on the transformation of established parties and the rise of anti-establishment parties in Central and Eastern Europe.