By Cristian Preda, University of Bucharest.

This article was first published in the review Comunitatea liberală 1848 on the 5th of May 2025. Link to the original article in Romanian: E mai rău ca-n noiembrie? Da, un pic, dar poate fi bine… – Comunitatea Liberala.

Yesterday, I went to the polls. The number of voters was slightly higher than on November 24. Not by much, and the increase was recorded abroad. However, it’s not clear whether more people showed up because they were traveling abroad, taking advantage of the May 1st holiday, or if they were new voters, outraged by one thing or another.

The pollsters were way off. We’re used to that. But yesterday, they projected George Simion at 30%, and he ended up with ten percent more. This profession needs serious reform. To be fair, they had the candidates in second and third place neck and neck, which is exactly how it turned out.

What’s most noteworthy, politically speaking, is that the sovereigntist candidate managed to recover all of Călin Georgescu’s voter base and even surpass it slightly: their combined score was 38.5% in November, while now the AUR leader secured 41%.

He will face Nicușor Dan in the runoff, who garnered over a percent and a half more than what Lasconi had gathered five months ago. The gap between him and Crin Antonescu, who finished third, is much wider than what the USR leader had over Ciolacu: it resembles the gap between Băsescu and Geoană in the 2009 final.

The performance of the governing coalition’s candidate was disastrous: despite backing from three parties that had received about 43% in the presidential and legislative elections, he couldn’t even gather half of that now. This is also Iohannis’s fault, of course, since Antonescu’s nomination happened while the former president still had influence over the ruling coalition.

Lasconi came in fifth, receiving even less than what critics who called for her withdrawal had predicted: not even 3%. Her removal from the USR leadership is likely imminent, as her behavior lately has been completely irrational.

The arbiter of the final round will likely be Victor Ponta, the former Social Democratic prime minister who has turned to Trumpism. It’s predictable that he’ll either go for the leadership of PSD or start a new left-wing party, since it’s clear that Prime Minister Ciolacu is completely discredited—after placing third in the November presidential race, he now backed a presidential candidate who wasn’t even from PSD. A perfect chameleon, Ponta could align with either the nationalist camp or the other one, because he has energy to burn.

Negotiations to form a pro-European majority will be complicated not only by Ponta’s position and the campaign jabs between Antonescu and N. Dan, but also—or maybe especially—by uncertainties within the PNL camp. Likely, part of the solution will depend on Bolojan’s skill in navigating the current turbulent waters. He performed very honorably as interim, but it’s clear he would be a major asset to the government as prime minister. That’s a kind of political capital that could be put to great use for “our country,” as he likes to say.

So, we may end up with a showdown between the duos N. Dan – I. Bolojan and G. Simion – C. Georgescu.

I hasten to say I am just as sure the current mayor will become president as I was that he would make it to the runoff.

__

Cristian Preda is a professor in political science at the University of Bucharest and a former MEP (2009-2019). His research areas are large, from political regimes, to political history, elections and party politics.