Antony Todorov, New Bulgarian University

1. What impact do you think the war in Ukraine is having on the political landscape in your country?

The war in Ukraine has repeatedly reinforced an existing historical cleavage in Bulgarian society between Russophiles and Russophobes. The significance of this opposition changes depending on the circumstances, but this war is largely brought to the forefront.

Russophiles are mostly among supporters of the center-left BSP party, but also among supporters of the far-right “Vazrazhdane party” (Revival). Russophobes are mostly among the classic anti-communists and parties from the right and liberal sectors. But among Russophiles there are also those who, for various biographical reasons, have a close connection with the Russian language and Russian culture, but are opponents of Vladimir Putin’s policies.

Regarding the war itself, there are other divisions: who is responsible for starting it, what Bulgaria’s policy on the issue should be, and how the war could end. In principle, Russophiles believe that responsibility for the war is divided between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. They are against providing military aid to Ukraine but are not fundamentally against providing all assistance to Ukrainians. Russophobes are even inclined to Bulgaria’s direct participation in the military defense of Ukraine. Russophiles believe that the war wants Ukraine to make concessions (including territorial ones), while Russophobes expect to put pressure on it to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

In the situation of difficult efforts to achieve a majority in parliament, this opposition further complicates possible, albeit temporary, coalitions, the whole goal of which would be the fight against political corruption. The difficulty is which of the two (war or corruption) would be set as a priority. But there is a significant group of citizens in society who are neutral towards this cleavage, because they believe that some, albeit unfair, peace is better than continuing the war.

2. What effect has this war had on perceptions of the European Union in your country, both among the general public and among the political elite?

The cleavage between Russophiles and Russophobes partly coincides with the cleavage between Europhiles and Eurosceptics. But no one seems to propose or want Bulgaria to leave the EU, except for some of the most extreme politicians from the populist sector. Russophiles express dissatisfaction with the EU’s unlimited support for Ukraine, while Russophobes, on the contrary, welcome this position of the EU. Both camps have difficulty identifying with the policy of US President Donald Trump. Russophiles are generally critical of the US, but support some of the US’s statements and actions regarding the war today. Similarly, Russophobes have difficulty understanding the gestures of friendship from the Americans towards Vladimir Putin.

Another, more private issue that has made it difficult for a number of human rights organizations to express unquestioning support for Ukraine is the role of the far-right in Ukrainian politics, especially their role in the Azov Regiment in 2014-2018 in Donbas.

But on the eve of Bulgaria’s admission to the eurozone, the attitude towards the EU has not changed significantly and the large majority continues to support Bulgaria’s membership. Moreover, Europe is already playing a crucial role in the disputes with the Republic of North Macedonia over the inclusion of Bulgarians in the North Macedonian constitution as a condition for starting negotiations for the accession of this Balkan country to the union. If there are criticisms of the EU, they are mainly in relation to its bureaucratization and the alleged favoritism of large countries at the expense of small ones.

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