By Michel Perottino, Charles University, Prague.
It is an understatement to say that Trump’s arrival was expected: finally, a president who lives up to the expectations of Czech conservatives, especially at a time when the space on the right is becoming particularly (too) full. Trump´s victory was supposed to support certain political lines (put the weaknesses of the European Union into perspective and possibly propose a sovereignist alternative, strengthen climate scepticism, and clarify the need for an austerity policy) but also to see more clearly who is who, and who is with whom on the right. The advantage was a priori on the side of those currently in government, logically on the front line in the event of a direct connection with the White House.
The government coalition Together (Spolu) already included the conservative right (ODS, the Civic Democratic Party), the pro-European right (TOP 09) and the Christian Democrats in need of recognition of “traditional” values (KDU-ČSL). While these three parties each claim to be politically conservative, it is the ODS that best corresponds to the definition of this political family, especially since it is led by Petr Fiala (since 2014 and now Prime Minister), who sometimes cites not only Reagan or Thatcher but other more classical authors. While Fiala is less of a Eurosceptic today, he is nonetheless a constant and systematic critic of the EU and is also one of the main pillars of the conservative alliance in Europe.
An ultra-conservative turn took by Babiš since 2022.
ANO 2011, led by Andrej Babiš, had already changed its tune and for some time now they have been presenting themselves as the representatives of the true conservative right, even though the parties in government continue to stigmatize them as being “left”. ANO 2011 and its president had indeed succeeded after the 2017 elections in emptying the social democrats and even the communists of their electoral substance. At that time ANO 2011 was a member of Renew Europe. Nevertheless, Andrej Babiš, let us remember, had made the liberals jump and threatened to exclude him from Renew Europe after his participation in the ultra-conservative CPAC conference organized by V. Orban in Budapest in 2023; a shift already undertaken on the occasion of the Czech presidential campaign in late 2022-early 2023.
Finally, a newcomer broke the bank in the 2024 European elections: the Motorists for themselves (Motoristé sobě), a new Klausian party claiming to be the most unbridled neo-conservatism, between Klaus, Milei and the AfD… against the ODS criticized as being too weak and increasingly distant from its founding father, V. Klaus.
Let us recall that today the ODS is a member of the Party of European Conservatives and Reformists, while ANO 2011 and the Motorists are part of Patriotes.eu. (an affiliation of ANO 2011 that has still not been taken into account in the Czech Republic).
At one time, Petr Fiala’s ODS seemed to be the best candidate for the conservative game by displaying Giorgia Meloni, Mateusz Morawiecki, or Janez Janša as early allies. Let us recall that at the instigation of the latter, the Slovenian (Janša), Polish (Morawiecki) and Czech (Fiala) prime ministers courageously made the first official trip of European representatives to Kyiv, shortly after the start of the Russian aggression, thereby criticizing the EU’s inaction of its representatives with too little legitimacy.
Trump’s victory seemed to be going in the right direction, that of Euro-Atlanticism more Atlanticist than European. That of an Atlanticism clearly posted against Russia and Putin´s aims of reconstituting the Soviet empire (the one that goes all the way to the former borders of the Eastern bloc… including the Czech Republic). Trump’s first kicks in the Euro-Atlantic alliance allowed the hawks to cry victory: finally Europe was backed into a corner, a weak Europe without a leader… In this specific understanding of the change, Trump allowed the EU to take stock of its shortcomings and weaknesses and lead it to finally react. The “time for awareness” would then have come. But Trump has gone much further. For the moment, much too far: humiliating Zelensky in a trap in the Oval Office has already caused doubt among government conservatives. The presentation of Putin as the good guy (and Zelensky as the dictator) and the pause in military aid to Ukraine has caused their consternation.
In doing so, Trump has made his choice between the line of the conservatives in power, fiercely anti-Russian (and pro-American) on the one hand, and on the other that of the partisans of Russian “peace”, those who want immediate peace, to the detriment of the aggressed, as in the case of Babiš or Turek. The facts do not matter: the same appeal to “common sense” hits the mark.
The memories of a heavy past do not matter, that of Munich in 1938, when Czechoslovakia, abandoned by the British and the French, had paid the price of Hitler’s need to expand its living space… with the support of the mediator Mussolini. Without the Czechoslovaks, it must be remembered, absent from these negotiations. The nail was hammered home by the Motorist´s MEP, Turek, who refuses to call Putin an aggressor, because “one cannot offend the one with whom one wants to make a pact”. Turek was also present at the CPAC conference in Washington (as well as one of Fiala’s lieutenants, Alexandr Vondra of the ODS) where he met Musk and reported on the Czech political scene that the Nazi outstretched arm is a symbol of the left (Hitler and his party being left-wing since they were national, but above all “socialists”…).
Trump’s policy, however, comes at a bad time: the Czech Republic will hold its elections to the Chamber of Deputies in October 2025. The support of the Czech population for Ukraine has declined and that for Andrej Babiš and his party is hovering far above that of the Together coalition. The pro-Russian camp is growing stronger, from ANO 2011 to the national « communist » coalition Enough! (Stačilo!), including the Motorists. All the more so since the allies were also making mistakes, even faults, which cast doubt on the vitality of the Union and its ability to overcome the crisis without American support, such as organizing a conference on security in Europe without certain Europeans (for example, E. Macron forgot, among others, to invite the Czechs at the end of February 2025, reinforcing the Eurosceptic stance).
The ODS and Together currently seem to be denied in their very foundation by the one in which they had based many hopes. However, there remains the criticism of Russia as cement and the hope that the United States, which has remained upright in their pro-Israeli position, will reverse the decision to leave Europe to its fate. Luckily for these conservatives, this hope is ultimately a form of realism, since Trump can, as we have seen in recent weeks, change his mind overnight.
« Luckily » for the ODS, there also remain cultural themes, in particular the fight against Islamist terrorism (present in Germany, but so far luckily absent from the Czech Republic), the rejection of « wokeism » and « cancel culture » (just as absent), the call for the free market and an economically strong Czech Republic (benefiting in particular from investments in the Czech arms industry). And, of course, the rejection of any form of environmental policy, in particular that of the hated Green Deal.
The ultra-conservative alternatives, ANO 2011 and Motorists, however, take advantage of their rejection of military spending (it will be necessary to cut social spending on which part of the ANO 2011 electorate depends since 2017 – only one problem here: the decision taken by the current government to buy the very expensive Boeing F-35s) and their pro-Russian foreign policy (slammed on that of R. Fico in Slovakia and V. Orban in Hungary… supposed assurance of cheaper Russian raw materials, oil and gas in particular, among the Klausians a long-known orientation) and beyond the recognition of the right of the strongest, dear to the neo-realists. It is always safer to be on the side of the handle… even if it means changing your speech or even your mind later.
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Michel Perottino is an associate professor and researcher at Charles University, Prague. He is head of the Political Science Department since 2015, his main research interests are Czech politics and political parties.