By Juraj Marušiak, Institute of Political Science of Slovak Academy of Science, Bratislava.

In addition to the sharp polarisation of society between the government camp and the opposition, which concerns the issue of the state’s relationship with civil society, as well as the attitude towards the EU and the war in Ukraine, Slovak politics has been paralysed by several months of government crisis. The coalition of the two nominally social-democratic parties, Direction – Social Democracy [Smer-SD] and Voice – Social Democracy [Hlas-SD], and the national-conservative, pro-Russian Slovak National Party (SNS), formed after the September 2023 parliamentary elections, has only a narrow majority of 79 votes out of 150 in parliament. Slovakia has faced a government crisis since October. However, with the appointment of Samuel Migaľ as the new Minister of Investment, Regional Development, and Informatization on March 19, the government appears to have restored its narrow parliamentary majority (Prezident Slovenskej republiky).

The policies of Robert Fico’s fourth government have been the subject of protests practically since its establishment. Initially, opposition to the government’s approach to cultural institutions and public media, as well as its attempt to gain control over commercial media through economic means, dominated the debate. However, the protests, held regularly every two weeks, escalated after the statements of Tibor Gašpar, the deputy chairman of the National Council of the Slovak Republic, who in January 2025, after a visit to Moscow, together with five other coalition MPs, admitted the possibility of Slovakia’s withdrawal from the EU. Although the more pro-European Hlas-SD coalition rejected such an alternative, as did President Peter Pellegrini, Prime Minister Robert Fico stood up for T. Gašpar. Although Fico also denied any thoughts of Slovakia leaving the EU, the protests have mobilised a significant number of citizens and are taking place not only in large cities such as Bratislava or Košice, but also in smaller towns, including those considered to be electoral strongholds of Smer.

However, the protests themselves do not pose a threat to the government. The destabilisation of the ruling coalition was a much greater risk. The first contradictions were already evident after Peter Pellegrini’s victory as president of the Slovak Republic. When he resigned from his previous post as President of the National Council of the Slovak Republic on June 1, 2024, the most minor coalition partner, the SNS (Slovenská Národná Strana, Slovak national party), began to claim the post, which the Hlas-SD party, founded by Pellegrini, rejected. As a result, the Slovak parliament did not have a speaker until March.

The most vulnerable place is the SNS  parliamentary caucus. Representatives of several smaller groupings and independent personalities were on its candidate list, but thanks to the system of preferential voting, they managed to enter the National Council. Thus, it happened that only one member of the ten-member SNS club was a member of the party: the party’s chairman and also the deputy chairman of parliament, Andrej Danko. However, he had only limited possibilities to influence the work of the other « his » MPs for the above reason. Yet in October 2024, a group of three deputies led by Rudolf Huliak, who are members of the National Coalition, a minor far-right party, left the SNS parliamentary club. The reason for their decision was dissatisfaction with SNS staff appointments, especially in the environmental field. Huliak, who defends the interests of hunters and criticises the Green Deal and the work of nature conservationists, was one of the candidates for the post of minister of this department in 2023. Still, his statements questioning Slovakia’s membership of the EU were one of the reasons why he did not become a minister in the end. With the departure of this trio, the SNS parliamentary caucus has effectively disintegrated, as its membership has fallen below eight. It was only saved by the transfer of a close Fico associate, Dušan Muňko, from the Smer-SD club, making the SNS a satellite of the strongest coalition party.

Another problem arose within the Hlas-SD party, as four of its MPs began to question the government’s policy in public and criticized the party’s rapprochement with Smer-SD. In doing so, the Hlas-SD was formed in 2020 by splitting from this party. Members of the group around R. Huliak openly stated that they were demanding a place in the government or positions in the state administration, which would, in practice, mean the recognition of their group as the following coalition partner. This was vehemently opposed by the SNS, on whose list they were elected. However, the dissatisfied Hlas-SD members criticised the government’s policies towards cultural institutions and NGOs, as well as its foreign policy rhetoric.

In particular, the group’s unofficial leader, former journalist Samuel Migaľ, declared the need to support Ukraine’s struggle, thus differentiating himself from the rhetoric of government officials. Some of them refused to support the coalition in the vote to remove the leader of the strongest opposition party, Michal Šimečka, from the post of parliamentary speaker. Although parliament was paralysed several times as rebels from coalition parties failed to speak, preventing the session from starting, key government bills were still passed. At the same time, both groups declared that they did not wish to see the government fall. Migaľ and one other deputy were expelled from the Hlas-SD at the January 24, 2025, working congress, which President Pellegrini attended. Another one left the party on his own and joined Huliak’s group. A fourth declared his loyalty to the Hlas-SD party.

Not only did the opposition discuss possible early elections, but Prime Minister Fico also threatened them. However, this would mean the end of the political activity of both groups of discontented people. At the same time, Fico initiated direct negotiations with the rebels without the mediation of the presidents of SNS and Hlas-SD. He stripped the two smaller coalition partners of their ministries. R. Huliak thus became the new Minister of Sport and Tourism, while S. Migaľ was appointed Minister of Investment, Regional Development, and Informatisation. These nominations were already given to them as Smer nominees.  The rebels from the Voice lost their parliamentary mandate, which opened the way for the former head of Migaľ’s ministry, Richard Raši, to become speaker of the parliament. In return for the ministerial seat, Migaľ, of course, overnight forgot all his critical remarks about the current government.

Migaľ announced the founding of a new party. If he takes such a step, a unique phenomenon in Slovakia will emerge – an extra-parliamentary ruling party without a single MP. So far, governments led by Smer have been characterised by a certain degree of professionalism, even in the case of coalition partners. This has been one of the sources of Smer-SD’s political strength. However, the new government appointments have brought into the government individuals without the necessary political and professional competence to hold the positions mentioned above. The members of Migaľ’s group do not even have a relevant political background; in terms of preferential votes and influence in their former party, they were marginal figures until the end of 2024.

Fico used the crisis to strengthen his position in the coalition. At the same time, however, he does not want a complete collapse of his partner parties. He is aware that he will need partners to govern after the next elections. So far, he has criticized the governments of his opponents for organizational instability and incoherence, as the coalitions without Smer-SD participation in 2010-2012 and 2020-2023 were composed of four or more parties. At present, however, his government is a de facto coalition of five parties. The leaders of the partner parties Hlas-SD and SNS feel humiliated. Although they are more concerned with the government’s survival than before, they are making their discontent known. Moreover, they will be in government together with former members of their parties, which will certainly not be a stabilising factor for the current coalition.

Especially the people around S. Migaľ have done the almost impossible. Despite the intense polarisation of Slovak society, both segments of it have managed to agree that they are despised. Solving the government crisis is only putting out an acute fire. Fico’s willingness to make far-reaching concessions to preserve the government’s majority is a signal to other potential coalition MPs that it may be worthwhile to challenge the government and secure ministerial posts in this manner. The government will thus have to spend more and more of its efforts fighting for its own survival rather than implementing policies.

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Juraj Marušiak is a senior research fellow at the Slovak Academy of Science. His research fields lie in political regimes and regional cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe and contemporary history of Slovakia.