By Ivaylo Dinev, Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS), Berlin.

On 15 March, the largest protest demonstration in Serbia’s history took place in Belgrade. It was the culmination of the student protests that started after the death of 15 people in the Novi Sad train station collapse. According to police figures, which traditionally give a lower number of protesters, the number of participants was 107.000, while the non-governmental organisation « Arhiv Javnih Skupova », which counts participants at the protests through images and drone videos, put the number between 275.000 and 320.000. According to opposition media, there is talk of as many as half a million or 700.000 people.

If such a protest had occurred in a major Western country, the media would likely frame it as a revolutionary moment — because that is precisely what it is. Yet, beyond its immediate political implications, the Serbian protests set a powerful example for other countries: they demonstrate how people from vastly different social backgrounds and ideologies can unite behind a shared cause. At a time when the political divide between progressive urban centers and more conservative rural areas, or between different generations, is widening across the world, Serbia has defied this trend over the cause of justice, accountability, and transparency. Over the past four months, the protests have not remained confined to the major urban centers Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš. On the contrary, they have spread nationwide, with demonstrations taking place in over 400 towns and villages. Students have deliberately marched from city to city, where they are welcomed in each new location as national heroes. They have purposefully aligned themselves with protest campaigns by workers, pensioners, and teachers, creating a broad-based movement.

A renewed sense of hope and solidarity through large protests.

The result? A rare sense of solidarity and hope. Recent polls show overwhelming public support for the students and their demands, reflecting the depth of the movement’s reach.

However, the outcome of such crisis is not dictated by internal dynamics alone. President Aleksandar Vučić is skilfully leveraging international factors and state resources to maintain his grip on power. Just days ago, Donald Trump Jr. met with Vučić, a visit linked to the Trump family’s long-standing interest in developing a hotel complex in Belgrade. Meanwhile, the European Union’s response has been soft, with no significant criticism from key regional players.

The protesters have already achieved much of what is need for a successful revolution: they have mobilized on a national scale, gained support from diverse social groups, and secured high public legitimacy. Yet, a critical question remains unanswered — what comes next? The protests have made it clear that change is necessary, but no clear alternative to Vučić’s rule has emerged so far. With March 15 likely marking the peak of mobilization, the real challenge now is not just sustaining momentum, but defining a clear path forward during this rare moment of opening of political opportunities.

Protesters at a political crossroads.

Two potential options lie ahead. The first is for students to organize a plenum with representatives from political parties and civil associations to lay the groundwork for a new political movement. The second is for the opposition to form new electoral alliance, drawing on the support of students and other key protest groups. Each option carries its own challenges and opportunities, but one thing is clear: the momentum of the protests must now transform into concrete institutional change.

A comparison with neighbouring Bulgaria highlights both the potential and the challenges ahead for Serbia. While Bulgaria’s 2013 and 2020 mass protests, including a student occupation, led to the creation of new political parties that entered successfully electoral arena, they remained largely confined to Sofia and ultimately resulted in political deadlock. Still, the institutionalization of the protest movement reshaped the party system. The Serbia’s protests have broader public support and social basis, suggesting that if activists successfully channelled the mass protest into political movement, they could drive deeper transformation of the country’s political system.

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Ivaylo Dinev is a researcher at the Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS), in Berlin where he coordinates the Multi-method data laboratory of the KonKoop research network. He is a specialist of social movements, protests and civil society.